SMU

[the Blades]

Well we know history repeats itself, is it that shocking ? Alterique and now once again Larrier, though
a different injury......but I guess SMU hasn't gotten to many breaks either, lately ...

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

Despite that SMU is 4-3 in the AAC and 14-6 overall. I think they will likely be favored against UConn. I suspect UConn will have trouble beating any team that is half way decent and SMU certainly is half way decent.

 

[the Blades]

Expect KO to match up w/ more small ball ( what else is new), it looks like SMU might start a 6-9 guy and a bunch of guards,
with only one guy over 6-5 off the bench after losing the 2 forwards above.

Jimmy Whitt........G... 6' 3" / 175
Ben Emelogu......G....6' 5" / 215
Ethan Chargois....F....6' 9" / 235
Shake Milton........G...6' 6" / 205
J. McMurray....... G....6' 0" /175

Akoy Agau..........F.....6' 8"/235
Elijah Landrum....G....6' 0" /180
William Douglas...G...6' 5"/180

 

[USNA90]

If I’m not mistaken, SMU lost a lot of players after last year as well. It look like their rebuild was a bit more successful than UConn’s.

 

[the Blades]

If I’m not mistaken, SMU lost a lot of players after last year as well. It look like their rebuild was a bit more successful than UConn’s.

True, 3 of their top 4 scorers including Semi Ojeleye who's playing for the Celtics, but they just seem to keep on ticking. Had a 3 game bump but just beat Wichita St. on the road and also knocked off Arizona, USC earlier in the year.

 

[Shaggydog84]

i’m setting the over/under for Uconn’s O at 53. any takers

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

I will take the over because SMU is averaging 74 points per game and UConn 68 and the final score could be 74-68, SMU.

SMU is Shooting 41% on 3s. Also 47.2% on overall FGs. SMU has made 173 3s on the year while UConn has made only 115.

The only positive offensive stat for UConn is that they are shooting 75% on FTs as a team. Most of this is Adams and Vital who are both shooting 83%.

SMU has 330 assists as a team while UConn has 184.

If you look at the team stats of UConn they portray a horrendous offensive team and I am kind of surprised they are even getting 68 points a game. Despite the above stats, I say I should win on the over of 53 at home.

 

[USNA90]

I think UConn does it’s best offensive work during garbage time. I’m wondering if you would take the over on UConn scoring 25 in the first half.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

UConn does do its best offensive work when the outcome has been decided and the opponent has relaxed on D, but I would still take the over 25 in the first half at home. On the road not sure I would though.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

By the way me taking these overs should in no way be construed as an endorsement of the donkey ball sucking, assist-less, easy-to-defend, 3 point clanking, "hero ball" offense UConn has been running under KO.

 

[Shaggydog84]

ok 53 was a little sarcasm. maybe realistically a little higher but not much. what do they average again good teams? check it out KSTW. let’s go 63 for the huskies over/under my final #

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

Wow that's a tough one. Not sure on that one. UConn has played two decent or better opponents at home: Villanova and UCF, and scored 62 against UCF and 61 vs. Villanova, including lot of throw in garbage at the end. I go with the under 63!

 

[Shaggydog84]

Wow that's a tough one. Not sure on that one. UConn has played two decent or better opponents at home: Villanova and UCF, and scored 62 against UCF and 61 vs. Villanova, including lot of throw in garbage at the end. I go with the under 63!

ok, since i’m the house i guess i have to take this one but not liking it. let’s also remember TL, fwiw, isn’t playing, which may bode well for the team in general but not for the house who has to score at least 63

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

The worst aspect of TL’s game is he has a tendency for horrendous turnovers that lead to uncontested baskets going the other way. If there was a stat for “horrible turnovers” meaning any TO that led to an uncontested hoop the other way, he would likely be the team leader in that category. However he does add something with his shooting, even though his percentage could be better. This surely means more PT for Polley and Whaley.

Without TL an under 63 result is strongly in play. I would say the over under on SMU is probably 71

 

[USNA90]

I like this game! Since I’m often stunned by how bad UConn’s offense is, let me the throw out another question for consideration: what percentage chance is there of SMU calling a timeout to stop a UConn run? I put the chance at zero in the Villanova game, but they called one to stop a “run” after UConn cut their lead to 17.

 

[Shaggydog84]

I like this game! Since I’m often stunned by how bad UConn’s offense is, let me the throw out another question for consideration: what percentage chance is there of SMU calling a timeout to stop a UConn run? I put the chance at zero in the Villanova game, but they called one to stop a “run” after UConn cut their lead to 17.

good one. i think there’s always a good chance at some point in most games. i think maybe a fun bet is how many times in a game. but with uconn the numbers are mostly 0 or 1....to your point

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

I don't believe that runs that happen when a team is down by 25 or 30 are statistically meaningful, even if they lead to a timeout. A run that forces a lead change or a change in momentum of the game is a different story.

It's quite common when watching the UConn women that they go up by 40-50 points, put in the weaker bench players and then the opposing team makes a run that leads Geno to call a timeout. It's not because the game is losable, it's because it's a teaching moment as the team is not playing at the level he expects. Similarly I think Jay Wright saw his team taking the foot off the gas pedal and did not like it. His Villanova team has been blowing out a lot of people lately, Georgetown by 33 and most recently they beat Providence by 20. So he wants to guard against them getting too relaxed.

I can think of two significant runs by UConn men, in past years, to win huge games. There was an 11-0 run to end the Big East championship game in 1996, punctuated by Ray Allen's off balance jumper at the buzzer to win it, and the 12-0 run at the end of the game to beat Duke in the 2004 Final 4, only interrupted by a meaningless desperation 3 at the buzzer. Before that Duke did not get a clean look at a shot in the last 4 minutes of that game. They got bottled up, big time.

I also recall the monumental run that turned a 25 point second half deficit against UMass into an 11 point win when Jim Calhoun inserted Rashad Anderson, then a freshman who up until that game had barely played, and the kid started raining 3s into the basket, which inspired the whole team. That was probably the most incredible run I can ever remember UConn going on. I thought that game was lost. UMass had a good team that year, very solid big men as I recall. Calhoun was not getting what he wanted from the team on offense and Anderson proved to be the spark that night. And it would signal the big things that were to come from him down the road as one of the more amazing 3 point shooters in UConn history.

Now those are real runs. The run UConn had against Villanova was a "gimme run" and I don't even consider those to be real basketball runs. Not when a team is down by more than 15 and the lead does not change. Those are gimme runs.

 

[USNA90]

That’s why I used the scare quotes around the word run.

 

[Dominicfrank]

Lets be honest though this team is barely capable of a "gimme run"

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

I loved the sequence where Vital stole the ball from Milton, incidentally head butted Milton after the steal, and then made a 3. This was the best individual sequence by a UConn player from defense to offense this year.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

UConn rebounding has been terrible so far, just like against Villanova.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

These long scoring droughts by UConn are painful to watch. They are going to have one every game, you just don’t know when. Here it was the end of half, a sign of tired legs.

27 points at half, on pace for 54 and the under 63.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

Vital has made some highlight reel plays in this game, while also hoisting some really bad shots. It’s a mixed bag with him but mostly good stuff - and the kid always plays hard.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

Did SMU actually put a box and one D on Vital? I think that’s a bit of an overreaction by the SMU coach. The way to play Vital is to sag off him and bait him into shooting long 3s. He will take that bait.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

Actually this has been a very good defensive effort by UConn. This is how they have to play to win games. Ugly grind it out type basketball. Painful offense at times but they made enough buckets. Numerous great plays by Vital tonight. One of his best game at UConn, I would say probably his best game against a quality albeit banged up opponent. Also thought Carlton was a factor on the boards and on D in the second half.

SMU inexplicably was trying to force passes inside against the zone and it led to some bad TOs. Their point guard play was not good.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

Shaggy right on with his over under at 63. Anderson makes 2 FTs and it’s right on the money. House wins. I said it was a tough bet. But didn’t think SMU would get stifled to the extent they did. They didn’t play well.

 

[KhalidShockedTheWorld]

SMU got held to 28% FG shooting tonight, 25% from 3. UConn only shot 41% and 34% from 3, nothing special, but better than SMU. Boards were dead even at the end- Carlton had 12 boards to lead UConn. UConn 13-9 assists to TO which is better than recent outputs on that front.

 

[Dominicfrank]

Proud of the way we played tonight. Josh is starting to really find his defensive game. Kid could be special.

 

[Shaggydog84]

Shaggy right on with his over under at 63. Anderson makes 2 FTs and it’s right on the money. House wins. I said it was a tough bet. But didn’t think SMU would get stifled to the extent they did. They didn’t play well.

For full disclosure, if i wasn't the house i would have taken the under myself. Anderson certainly didn't make it easy on me, missing the front end of a 1 & 1.

 

[Shaggydog84]

So....why wouldn't we start Vital, Adams, Polley, Chop, and Carlton? Like Blades keeps harping on, why the small team? esp when anderson has basically brought little to the table so far. Anderson for ball handling breaks & end of game when needed.

 

[USNA90]

I’m really surprised by this win. When I looked at the stats, I was expecting to see that they played way above the norm for 3 point percentage, but 34% is nothing to write home about. Turnovers and the rebounding turn around in the second half won this game.