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Uconn back in the top 25

Xavier in - Marquette out this week....( well Uconn's got some business to take care of WED before they can worry about NYE !

 
Marquette lost a very difficult road game at Providence in 2OT, that they could have won. I continue to believe they are an extremely dangerous team, especially in their place, and if you are loose with the basketball against them you pay a very heavy price.

I have been impressed with Xavier the few times I have seen them. Sean Miller has not forgotten how to coach, although reports out of Xavier have been that the team (in his view) has not adapted to playing his up tempo style as quickly as he would have liked. Xavier's starting 5 may be as good as UConn's, they have good inside/outside balance as Boum and Kunkel can make 3s (Xavier is shooting over 40% as a team from 3!!!). 3 point defense against them will be as important as rim protection against their 2 very capable big men.

But there is a big drop off in production when they go to their bench. So UConn has an edge in depth as they have in almost all of their games. And what you hope for in a game like this one, albeit on the road, is that you can wear them down with the depth to the point where the legs get heavy and the shots are not falling late in the game. In other words, the recipe that led to a victory over Georgetown. All that being said, at Xavier is a losable game, at Marquette is a losable game, and the way Villanova has been playing of late, the home game Wednesday night will not be easy. I think the run of 13 straight double digit victories is likely to end this week- either against VU, at Xavier or in both games. But that's a streak that isn't important. Just win baby!
 
UConn still #1 in the Fox Sports power rankings, which mentions that UConn is the 2nd team in Big East history to win its 1st 13 straight games by double digits, matching the 1985-86 Syracuse team. That Syracuse team went 26-6, won the Big East regular season title and lost as a 2 seed in the NCAA 2nd round to 7 seed Navy and their 7'1" center David Robinson. Syracuse did go all the way to the NCAA championship game the following season, losing to Indiana on a last second shot by Keith Smart.
 
So Uconn drops to #4 in the AP...........Xavier moves up to #18.
But in the way more important NET Rankings....Uconn is at #2, still ahead of Purdue. The Big East currently has 5 teams in the Top 50 ( same as the 15 team ACC) with @ #48 Providence up next for the Huskies.... BTW... Uconn's former conference, the Amercian, has only 1 team in the top 50, that's #1 Houston.


 
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So Uconn drops to #4 in the AP...........Xavier moves up to #18.
But in the way more important NET Rankings....Uconn is now at #3, still ahead of Purdue. The Big East currently has 5 teams in the Top 50 .
In a weird twist, Uconn's losing is helping the Big East national rankings, they've only dropped two spots in the NET with the 2 road losses but ..... Providence moved up 13 spots, for 5 BE teams in top 33. 4 of which Uconn is playing in a row.
 
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Jan-5-2023-NET-Rankings-BE.jpg
 
Like like UConn's NET rankings may get a boost from some OOC opponents tonight:

Florida has beaten 12-3 LSU by 11 at LSU
Iowa State is drilling Texas Tech by 33 late 2nd half
 
5 tournament teams right now, but I think Villanova will be there at the end and make it 6.
The again maybe not. Just when Nova was ready to tie Uconn's record domination of a BE school, Boston College at 23 games, 1988-2001 " a funny thing happened on the way to the forum "


It was Blue Demons' first win over the Wildcats since Jan. 3, 2008
 
UConn fell to #15 in the AP poll (I thought they would fall much farther and maybe out of the poll completely, but fortunately most voters didn't see the SJ game), while they only fell to #7 in the NET rankings:
At this point things can go one of 2 ways. They can make appropriate adjustments and show more toughness, or if they don't, teams will keep attacking them with dribble drives, drawing 25-30 fouls per game, and discombobulate the motion offense with assorted bumps and holds and grabs. It would be nice if they had guards who can effectively attack the rim, but the only guard in the rotation capable of doing so seems to be Diarra, whom defenses play off of because he can't shoot.

I am very surprised by the ineffectiveness of Alleyne. He was a career 10 point per game scorer at VT, is averaging less than half of that 4.6), is shooting over 10 % points less than his career average on 3s, and hasn't played good D of late. He has not adjusted to his role off the bench and although he is not getting the same minutes at UConn, he isn't getting less than half the minutes. I figured he would pick it up in conference play but it hasn't happened.
 
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BTW Jalen Gaffney and FAU, which is 16-1, entered the AP poll at #24. I looked at their team stats and Gaff is shooting 40% on 3s (always like his shot so not surprised by this), but is their 7th leading scorer at 5.9 ppg. Interestingly their top 3 scorers have not started the majority of their games. Between the top 3 FAU scorers, there are 40 total games played and 9 starts. So that tells me they have guys who can score off the bench. Also, they are shooting 38% on 3s as a team, with Gaff contributing to that cause as noted above.
 
9 in the NET and 20 in the AP is not bad. There is a chance that UConn will run the table and win its last 4 games- 3 are at home and the other is at a UConn-friendly MSG venue vs. St John's. What's interesting is that UConn lost on Saturday but actually moved up a notch in the AP poll, from 21 to 20.

I saw the very end of the Creighton game, and it looked winnable. Hawkins was around an inch away from a game tying 3 pointer. But it's not really a terrible loss as Creighton has a great team, had won around 10 in a row and had been untouchable since Kalkbrenner returned to their lineup. UConn did shoot a season low 32.3% and missed too many 3s, and they did accept the bait Creighton laid of leaving AJ wide open a little too much, but overall it just wasn't a bad loss. I saw Duke get drilled by 25 at Miami last week in a completely noncompetitive game. However, UConn hasn't been blown out by anyone. Most of their losses, save Providence and St. John's (which looked worse than the scores), were very competitive losses to high quality teams. I think the UConn team has some better basketball in front of them.
 
It's also interesting that Alabama is now number 1 as UConn is responsible for one of their 3 losses. I was very impressed with Alabama when I saw them at the Phil Knight tournament. They also played an epic 3 OT game against UNC, which they won after UConn beat them. UConn's NET ranking is still being juiced by that win.
 
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This weeks has a stacked group of BE teams between the Top 16-20 with Marquette @ #10...

Uconn holds strong as the only top 10 BE team in the-
 
and #14 and back in ESPN's power rankings:
14. UConn Huskies (20-7)
Previous ranking:
In the waiting room
This week: vs. Providence (Wednesday), at St. John's (Saturday)

UConn felt like the biggest surprise omission from the NCAA's bracket reveal Saturday afternoon. The Huskies are in the top 10 in the NET and the top 10 of every predictive metric -- while also possessing five Quadrant 1 wins, including against Alabama by 15, Iowa State by 18 and Marquette by 15. Their home loss to the Red Storm during a difficult 1-5 stretch in January is the lone negative on the résumé, although none of the profiles in the 4-seed range are without imperfections. UConn has four games left, and should be the favorite in all. Running the table until the Big East tournament would likely secure a top-four seed, leaving the mock reveal a distant memory.
 
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Not sure why Alabama is #2 and Houston #1 when Alabama beat Houston head to head on Houston's home court. I actually saw that game and it was a good one. But you can't have Alabama at #2 when there is a head to head result like that.
 
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Not sure why Alabama is #2 and Houston #1 when Alabama beat Houston head to head on Houston's home court. I actually saw that game and it was a good one. But you can't have Alabama at #2 when there is a head to head result like that.
FWIW, ESPN has an 8 loss TENN (#2 ) team above a 4 loss ALA (#3). Then again they have Uconn (#5) ahead of Purdue (#6), go figure.

 
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Well, Tennessee did hand Alabama their only loss in the SEC. So they should get some juice out of the win, although they are 10-6 in the SEC whereas Alabama is 15-1. And the loss was at Tennessee.
 
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LOL - just in case you were wondering I had not read the CBS bracketology before posting that "smell test", but good to know that my December bout with Covid didn't knock out my sense of smell.
 
By the way Marquette's ranking of #6 in the AP poll is their highest ranking since 1977-78, a year after they won their first and only NCAA championship when coached by Al McGuire. Since then I think they went to one Final 4 when they had Dwayne Wade on their team.

So UConn has beaten the #2 and #6 team in this week's poll by double digit points. Despite this it's a great job by Shaka Smart with this team and program, taking them somewhere they haven't been in over 45 years.
 
Also, UConn and Marquette were the 2 biggest movers in the top 15, both moving up 4 spots from last week. That's an interesting fact.
 
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